War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process widely dismissed as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders imprisoned and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is holding a phased ballot nearly five years after it took control in a coup, which ignited massive protests and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Observers say the junta, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the costly deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the freedoms of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been charged for disrupting or criticising the election under a new law which imposes harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a promotional video promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, pointing out that resistance forces have issued their own threats urging people to shun the polls.

The military has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it challenging to forecast a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will contest only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while the rest are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the authorities can adjust tactics if the results in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has called for political dialogue to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not intended for the outside world," a junta spokesman told a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "the path to democracy".